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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the current field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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